Dreiländertagung

The conflict–participation paradox in European Union politics

Daniela Braun & Swen Hutter

Most scholars agree that European integration has become increasingly politicized over the last two decades, yet its broader democratic consequences remain unclear. The link between party competition and politicization is well established, but findings regarding the attitudinal and behavioral consequences of these processes are mixed. Although electoral participation increased somewhat in the last two European Parliament elections, other forms of political participation at the European Union (EU) appear to remain limited. Available evidence suggests that explicitly EU-related petitions or protests are still relatively rare. Against this backdrop, our paper examines what we call the conflict–participation paradox in EU politics: the puzzling gap between intensified elite and party contestation over European integration and persistently limited citizen mobilization, despite simultaneous mobilization potential. Building on theories of politicization and cleavage formation, we revisit the expectation that visible political conflict should activate citizens and strengthen democratic legitimacy. The EU provides a critical test case. Despite the emergence of a transnational cleavage that increasingly structures party competition, citizen engagement in explicitly EU-related participation remains weak. We argue that this paradox results from supply-side dynamics: how elites and parties frame conflicts, how the media transmit them, and how institutional design restricts participatory openings. To develop this argument, we review scholarly literature across three dimensions: (a) party politicization, (b) citizens’ mobilization potential (i.e. the public’s interest and attitude strength in EU politics), and (c) citizens’ actual mobilization (i.e. civic engagement, political participation, citizens’ action). Empirically, we draw an comparative data from the PolDem Observatory, the ActEU public opinion survey and the European Election Study 2024. We conclude by outlining a research agenda on how politicization can evolve into participatory linkages, revitalizing civil society and democratic innovation in EU multilevel governance.

Do European political parties emphasize climate security in their electoral programs?

Djamila Jabra, Giuseppe Carteny & Daniela Braun

As global climate change is increasingly recognized as one of the most significant security risks of the 21st century, the discourse on security is being reshaped. While this recognition is widely accepted within the scientific community, it remains unclear whether political parties perceive climate change as a security concern and emphasize it in their electoral programs. Understanding how political parties compete over climate security is crucial in today’s political landscape. As climate security can be viewed as a means of achieving international accountability, its focus is gradually shifting toward more progressive and transformative objectives, reimagining it around new “matters of care.” However, research provides limited insights into the extent and manner in which parties articulate climate security, and how these strategies influence their electoral positioning.

Scholarly research on party competition has shown that political parties tend to avoid issues that favor their opponents, while emphasizing those that highlight their own strengths. Accordingly, parties prioritize issues and policies in which they are perceived as most competent by voters (Budge & Farlie, 1983). Although climate security represents one of the most pressing challenges in global and national politics, we argue that it is difficult for political parties to integrate this complex issue into their programmatic portfolios. Similar observations have been made regarding security issues more broadly, which appear to attract relatively little attention from political parties (Raunio & Wagner, 2020). In line with this, this study argues that political parties generally have limited incentives to emphasize climate security, and that only those that benefit strategically are likely to integrate it into their electoral programs. Against this backdrop, the paper addresses the following research question: Do European political parties emphasize climate security in their electoral programs?

Accordingly, this paper investigates the salience of climate security issues in electoral competition in order to assess their underrepresentation across Europe. Empirically, we combine a qualitative analysis based on a coding scheme derived from the securitization theory with an LLM-based computational analysis to examine whether climate security has been emphasized in the national election programs of all 27 EU member states over the last 25 years, and if not, which alternative security risks have been prioritized instead. Our results show that most parties do not emphasize climate security in their manifestos. Given that political parties are key actors in representative democracies with the capacity to shape public debate, scholars of climate security should turn their attention to this area to ensure that the challenges it entails are more prominently recognized and addressed on the political agenda.